It looks like everyone is buffing up their predictions for another year of astonishing growth by social media. The last several years have brought so many surprises that the next several are promising to yield a bumper crop of “I told you so” fodder from the “pithier than thou” crowd.
My prediction for 2010 is that nothing is sacred, including the onslaught 2010 predictions. Therefore, I’ll will go way out on a limb and make my 2011 predictions in 2009.
In General:
The interest coming due on our national debt will consume increasingly more of the money that institutions need to provide basic services. As these institutions weaken, they will increasingly be replaced by social media enterprise. These structurally weakened institutions will drive social media innovation more than any other factor.
Specifically:
So there it is and be assured that 2012 will not disappoint even the hardiest eschatologist!
Sorry for not repeating the “real-time is king” mantra or singing the “people will finally pay for content” tune, or reciting the “every department is the marketing department” manifesto. Something much bigger is about to happen. The evolution away from the current financial system will drive social media more than any other factor.
We have posted a few articles about the Deep Web and presented an emerging technology project that promises to provide a database of databases for the next great development of Internet Search. This short post considers the significance of one aspect of Deep Web Search.
Google Search has provided a set of incentives that drives people to document their world by blogging, developing social media, and creating seemingly infinite video content. The ability to see and be seen is the essence of market economics.
While the promise of searching a huge store of databases may not sound like Saturday social night at the local drive in burger joint, it does by extension, introduce new incentives. The new technology will drive people to build databases. A new generation of entrepreneurs will collect, organize, analyze and create – not information – but data.
The first things entrepreneurs will organize are human knowledge data – starting with their own, then relating it to others. Not unlike the human genome project, the vast human knowledge reservoir will be mapped. Entrepreneurs will enter their communities (on line, neighborhood, work, school, church, social networks) and create a database for what other people know and parse the data in any number of important and useful databases.
The reason for this is simple; data are collections of human observations.This is the only thing people are willing to pay for. Markets cannot and do not get any more fundamental than that.
Anyone who follows the news, social media, or some of the tech blogs may have noticed a lot of rehashing of old data – every blog has a posts about how social media will “really catch on”. New media isn’t so new anymore. The only thing that makes money is is the disclosure or new data – followed by weeks of rehashing of the data all the way down the rankings.
All Financial instruments are characterized in terms of a quantity and a quality. Real news, real insight, and real productivity results from new and reliable data, qualified interpretation of data, and relevant analysis of data – relative to time. The value of money is directly associated with the quantity and quality of the data representing money – relative to time.
Data alone are useless. People must process data into information – the backbone of all economics. Human knowledge and productivity is the source of all information – derived from data. Therefore, the only things people are willing to pay for are, in fact, data. Monetization of social media may be the deep dive into the data. Do the math. That’s big news.
In 2001, Michael K Bergman, an American academic and entrepreneur and one of the foremost authorities about the Internet, published a paper estimating the “Deep Web” to be 400-550 times larger than the known Googleverse. What does this mean for everything we claim to know about the web, social media, and social influence marketing?
Andy Becket wrote an excellent investigative piece called The dark side of the internet that I highly recommend reading. Among many great points, Andy describes the deep web:
“The darkweb”; “the deep web”; beneath “the surface web” – the metaphors alone make the internet feel suddenly more unfathomable and mysterious. Other terms circulate among those in the know: “darknet”, “invisible web”, “dark address space”, “murky address space”, “dirty address space”. Not all these phrases mean the same thing. While a “darknet” is an online network such as Freenet that is concealed from non-users, with all the potential for transgressive behaviour that implies, much of “the deep web”, spooky as it sounds, consists of unremarkable consumer and research data that is beyond the reach of search engines. “Dark address space” often refers to internet addresses that, for purely technical reasons, have simply stopped working.
The implications of the Dark Web are subtle. Like “Dark Matter” in space, the dark web may behave as a multiplier to account for that which cannot be explained except by some invisible, albeit, constant force. We can assume consistence because the common thread that transcends the entire Internet is still conversation. The ability to have a conversation as well as the ability to reject a conversation is part of the Dark Web and still a conversation nonetheless. The opposite of publicity is anonymity – if the universe seeks balance so too can we expect the web to equalize around the average anonymity of conversation.
Entrepreneurial factors also appear rational when applied to the Dark Web, specifically true ownership. Ownership includes the right to restrict access from others. In the Googleverse of search rankings and old economics, watered down and largely unenforceable copyright laws create a wasteful game of Cease and Desist among content providers – not exactly a safe place to converse. The inability to establish ownership and boundaries of user generated content is a primary constraint on monetization.
Meanwhile, the Dark Web utilizes a knowledge inventory where trusted people of known affinity are given free access to share freely – and anonymously. Ironically, anonymity improves the quality of a conversation by eliminating the irrelevant data that often constrains conversation. It is worthwhile to consider anonymity as a possibles monetization factor – pay to hide?
Not all anonymity is corrupt and perverse. People spend a great deal of time and effort developing a database that represents a knowledge inventory and they don’t want someone to just copy it. Trade secrets are the great competitive financial instrument of capitalism and depend on secrecy. For better or for worse, political activity in non-free countries such as China, Iran, and Afghanistan also rely on anonymity. The more time people spend on the web, the more of their personal life that would want to keep to themselves – the ability to avoid Google bots is a tangible conversation.
The phenomenon to consider is that people with mutual anonymity are able to share more freely. Ironically, anonymity improves the quality of a conversation by eliminating the irrelevant data that often constrains conversation. Conversely, efforts to constrain anonymity destroys freedom of the web. Tell that to your web analytics team.
A New Economic System of the country of Montenegro is based on complete and unfettered economic freedom; in other words, the elimination of all barriers to conducting business. Is Freedom A New Economic Paradigm?
Veselin Vukotić ‘s paper titled Economic Freedom and New Economic Paradigm, offers a case study that enlightens us as to some of the core changes, some easy and some difficult, that any proclaimed ‘new economic paradigm’ would place on people, culture, politics, and the markets. From this insight, perhaps we’ll see a new paradigm emerge.
Freedom; A competitive Advantage
Montenegro has achieved a competitive advantage in their Eastern European region by reducing international trade barriers, treating foreign and domestic concerns equally, reducing “contribution” fees and other taxes, reduction of public spending, affirmation of private property, and encouraging entrepreneurship. Veselin Vukotić also notes that the concept of economic freedom is a complete theoretical and practical expression of an idea. He quotes Plato:
The difference between concepts is the difference between starting ideas!
Therefore, he concludes that the idea of economic freedom is freedom of an individual to conduct business (earn money), and that business is the key factor of a society’s development and individual wealth. While we now know that unfettered capitalism breaks down at some point, he does accomplish something important – the elimination of all government as a defining element of freedom.
The Singularity Solution
We know it is often easier to solve a problem if we can remove certain elements, even temporarily, and analyze components individually. Suppose we eliminate Government from the equation, corporations would rule. However, corporations are made up of individuals, so individuals would rule…they would rule whom? The logic also breaks down.
There is one exception: what if all individuals were corporations and they ruled only themselves? Corporations are keeping government out of their affairs by keeping people off the books. The solution is for everyone to structure their existence as a corporation contracting to each other for every conceivable business arrangement. Heck, it only costs 40 dollars to open a business in the the U.S.
Self-regulating Freedom?
Knowledge would be shared freely, people would be paid for their productivity, diversity and strategic combination of knowledge would be rewarded. Everyone would own their knowledge and would seek to accumulate more. Trade barriers would be eliminated, taxes would be reduced, private property would be affirmed, and entrepreneurship would be encouraged. Like a family, no corporation could become wealthy at the expense of another corporation for very long.
Would you be willing to pay the government to leave you alone? Is that Freedom or a new economic paradigm or both?
(Editor’s note; This is the first in a series of articles that challenges the “degree system” of knowledge measurement as archaic and irrelevant to what is actually happening in the world today. Like the resume system – it is ridiculous if not outright damaging to the prospect of knowledge behaving, and therefore, trading like a financial instrument.
Why do we still care about college ‘degrees”?
The information that fuels the next economic paradigm will not be captured in the form of college degrees; rather, it will be captured in extremely detailed granularity of unique collections of knowledge assets in diverse combinations of persons that solve complex puzzles – and then share the solution with others.
This begs the question, why do we still care about University Degrees?
Wall Street talks about a Basket of Goods. The UN talks about a basket of Currencies. What would Madison Avenue say when Main Street coverts your baskets of goods with their basket of social currencies?
Here is a simple business plan that will screw everything up.
Suppose that a pool of advertisers in a single industry (yup, competitors) all throw 10% of their advertising budget into a basket. Now, suppose that money is distributed among a basket of the top 10% most active social media mavens (bloggers) based on their rankings related to the affinity segment.
For example, all teen fashion designers and outlets would toss 10% of their ad budget into a basket. The money would be distributed to the top 10% of teen fashion bloggers for doing exactly what they are going to do anyway – communicate their lifestyle experiences in their galaxy of communities.
What does this achieve?
1. If your product sucks, you’ll know why.
2. If your competitor rocks, you’ll know why.
3. Your brand is disseminated more efficiently than advertising
4. You are supporting the community that serves you.
5. People who are good at community organizing can earn a living doing it – that’s good for communities and your brand image.
6. Beats the Payola Laws because the payer can only pull their money from the basket – not any single payee. Pulling out would not send a good message oh, no, no, no
7. Bogus Bloggers can’t beat the rankings
8. a 300 Billion dollar per year advertising industry with a 95% failure rate can be bypassed by GOOD products – profit center anyone?
9. Designers create products in response to Social Priorities not Wall Street priorities.
10. You’ll create a Millions of young, proactive, innovative entrepreneurs too busy to watch traditional media anyway.
Oh sure, you’ll hear a desperate whine from Madison Avenue – That’s all free advertising – as a bulldozer moves the wrong way down a ONE WAY street.
I am noticing a recent backlash at the social media experts that are not actually experts. In one such rant, a real social media expert proposes a few simple questions that can help separate the good from the not-so-good.
A few simple things:
Bad Apples?
The chief complaint is that the bad ones are destroying the reputations of the good ones. It is no mystery that any fair and competitive market has a vetting mechanism and the hallmark of protectionism is in promoting the absence of such vetting… “except my own”.
Subjectivity or objectivity:
The Real Expert certainly means well, however, they are reflecting on the profession in their own image. This is entirely valid and correct, in fact, the CEO of the hiring firm is likely doing the same thing, saying to themselves: “Obviously, a social media consultant who is very good at promoting themselves would also be very good at promoting my company”. As such, the consultant that self-promotes is ironically casting the less selfish image.
A few not so simple things:
What every expert should know:
Will the Real Social Media Expert please stand up?
Where are the social media experts who are devising the curriculum, certification, structure and ascension plan for all the emerging consultants? After all, social media expertise is in itself the art and science of bringing mass quantities of people around a common goal, concern, message, or product, – quickly and efficiently using modern tools of mass influence – etc. What expert(s) is bringing together ALL social media “experts” under a vetting mechanism that serves market efficiencies not subjective efficiencies?
A kettle and a stove walk into a bar…
In other words, if they are so good, why haven’t they organized themselves?. The CEO says, “If they cannot organize their own “Social Network” industry, how can they organize mine?” Until then, the Riff Raff are entrepreneurs too and an essential ingredient in the development of innovations that will become standards that act in the best interest of the market, not necessarily in the best interest of the “real” Social Media expert.
Besides, who else would the Underdog go after?
If you’re a Flash game developer, you are concerned with how you can make a living from your creative and intellectual services. Fortunately there is a payment system so workable, that it may actually work. Game developers can charge money both for their games, and for things within their games.
Here’s how it works:
1. Player pays real money to buy fake money within the game.
2. Player spends fake money on virtual stuff.
3. Virtual stuff increases the value of the game.
The game developer can technically charge for whatever they like: level packs, hats, extended versions/director’s cuts, etc, etc. The sky’s the limit.
These types of transactions have been very popular in places like Korea for a long time, and it was amusing to see the initial resistance and resentment in North America to the idea. Meanwhile, North American Pioneers of such systems are drowning in money.
The Right [virtual] Stuff:
Now, suppose that Social Media could be modeled after a huge game where people act based on a set of incentives like, say, connecting with friends, accumulating followers for their blog, finding proverbial “gold rings” like employment opportunities, business opportunity, spiritual growth, professional advice, cheap airfare, fun things to do, product reviews, or political activism…just to name a few.
Suppose that in order to get from one level of the game to the next, they need to engage in conversation with another player. Anyone who has been on Linkedin, Twitter, or Facebook long enough knows that the “right virtual stuff” is sometimes hard to acquire. Twitter finally broke the mold with applications that now “sell” followers (I wonder if there were any Flash Developers behind this innovation).
A Mutually Inclusive Game:
Now, suppose the game was mutual such that some players need you a little bit more than you need them and they are willing to invest in your connection. Similarly, suppose you need some players a little more than they need you and you too are willing to invest for their connection. Finally, all players know that a mutual link between two appropriate players substantially increases the value of both players relative to the game.
It Takes Currency to Make Currency.
Immediately the engine of entrepreneurialism will ignite as people figure out new ways to play the game. With a trillion dollar advertising industry, a trillion dollar Professional Placement industry, and a trillion dollar recreation/leisure/entertainment/family industry on the ropes, you can guarantee that innovation will be absolutely intense. Welcome to the Innovation Economy.
(Editor’s note: This article was inspired by a piece authored by Ryan and can be found here)
The Social Media Production System
Social Media has demonstrated in many ways capable of meeting or exceeding the deliverable output of many traditional industries such as advertising, marketing, journalism, human resources, design, community organizing, education, and social vetting.
We have also seen social media form communities that increase productivity in manufacturing processes, software development, and project management. We have seen people self manage in social media to segregate and elevate good information away from bad information. We have seen communities act with logic, tact, and precision previously thought to be the province of top management guidance.
In short, we have seen social media replace or duplicate almost every structural element of the traditional corporation outside of the construct of corporations. Can social media provide a corporate structure in and among itself?
General Accounting Practices:
Corporations have an internal accounting system, internal processes, internal procedures, and often their own lexicon and unique job descriptions relative to their product. This is how a corporation stores knowledge and trades value internally and defends itself from external influence. The common thread is that each department is accounted, assessed, and compared in terms of money. Standard balance sheets are compared by banks and investors.
Social media uses the exchange of information, knowledge and new ideas to store value. Processes, procedures, job descriptions, and accounting are done in a public lexicon that everyone develops collectively. People share, trade, and exchange information, knowledge, and new ideas like tangible property; and they trade options on futures in the same. Increasingly, access to the community knowledge inventory is becoming a means be which people can convert productivity to money.
Standard Balance Sheet for Social Media
Most elements of a corporation can be duplicated in social media. For those parts that cannot, the entrepreneur will soon figure out how they can. The entrepreneur does not worry about money, they worry about productivity and the money always follows. The next paradigm of economic development will reside almost entirely on a statistical game of managing risk and return, matching surplus to deficit, and increasing human productivity in the operating system of Social Media. Every Newspaper that falls to Social Media is simply transferring its value to the new paradigm. That value is still in play. This trend will continue until a new currency representing that value is introduced.
Business Plans of the Future:
As you witness the progression of Social Media unfold, look for innovations that contain incentives for people to reorganize themselves. Look for similarities between new social media developments and traditional corporate departments. Look for businesses and institutions that support social vetting mechanisms, knowledge exchanges, and groups bringing together strategic combination of diverse knowledge assets, not just similar knowledge assets. Most importantly; look for the “Last Mile of Social Media”; diverse groups of 5-10 people living within a few miles of each other forming new enterprise.
Threats:
Finally, look for the threats that can corrupt an innovation economy. Social Media is currently responsible for trillions of dollars of productivity gains – all this money is still on the table for social entrepreneurs to monetize once the integration reaches a tipping point. Be watchful for attempts at censorship, attempts to monopolize information nodes, and the corporatizations of social networks. Wall Street was corrupted when the value of the currency became divorced from human productivity. Don’t let the same happen to Social Media.
Another approach for spending a Trillion dollars (backed by debt) would be for the government to issue innovation bonds (backed by innovation) to fund new enterprise. Surely the World still greatly admires and respects American Ingenuity (social capital, intellectual capital, and creative capital) and would likely buy such a financial instrument instead of more of our debt.
The final frontier; your backyard
The Last Mile of social media is a vastly unexploited resource with an astonishing wealth creation potential. The Ingenesist Project (TIP) specifies a structure for an innovation economy through the application of 3 simple web applications deployed to social media that will ignite “The Last Mile”.
Already, people use social media to harvest great ideas from around the world. The Ingenesist Project will enable global ideas to be applied in local economies throughout our communities.
Running Numbers:
The sweet spot for Last Mile social media is (2-6) people living within a (1-6) square mile area. Assume an average innovator density is about (1) person per square mile. The United States is a little more than (3) million square miles. If only (1) of the thousands upon thousands of potential applications of Last Mile social media were implemented across the country, then (3) million jobs would be created.
Dan’s List; Leave a Tip
Here is a list of (10) hypothetical business ideas that a buddy and I dreamed up over lunch using TIP methodology for inducing an Innovation Economy. Each of these ideas has a working revenue model.
1. Zertify: This company is a last mile/vetting social media application where neighbors “Zertify their Zillow Zestimates”.
2. Start Up Neighborhood (SUN): is a last mile social media application where neighbors get together to innovate and create new businesses.
3. ScatterWatt: is a last mile social media application for decentralizing power generation aggregating local clean power generation systems (rooftop wind, solar, greenery).
4. ComPrac: is a last mile/vetting application of social media that forms and organizes communities of practice for the purpose of mentorship and cooperation in innovation.
5. CombinePac: is a last mile/vetting application of social media that combines communities of practice strategically for the purpose of tangential innovation
6. TopUse: is a last mile social media/vetting application that makes best use of already disturbed lands saving undisturbed lands from exploitation.
7. CodeVitae: is last mile/vetting service that translates CVs and job descriptions into universal decimal classification system for computerized analysis, normalization, and improved allocation.
8. Proximizer: A last mile social media application that reallocates knowledge assets for best proximity to home space for carbon credits.
9. CarbonCops: is last mile social media application to register, certify, and implement carbon savings ideas.
10. VetBucks: is a last mile/vetting site for the verifying expenditure of public funds.
Improving Information for Fun and Profit:
The degree to which information is improved in a market is the degree to which the innovation adds value. As such, monetization becomes a relatively simple matter. Furthermore, the options that are created will have a multiplier effect in the communities as neighbors learn what knowledge assets are available with which to cooperate in their communities and where their knowledge assets can be deployed productively. New ideas generate more new ideas as the markets will seek to fill in the blank spots and support more structure for innovation economy.
An Endowment for their Grandchildren:
While the leadership elders are to be respected for their wisdom and accomplishments, they have very little comprehension of the economic growth potential of social media. It is understandable that they may overlook this opportunity. The capitalization of social media lays in the hands of the young people who know exactly what to do if given the opportunity. Why not give them a shot at getting the books in order? Call it their inheritance.
Periods of change in any market open the doors for abuse as control systems often lag behind the waves. This is especially true for social capitalism where the social contract is changing rapidly and the enforcement mechanisms are largely non-existent.
All markets must have effective vetting mechanisms in order for the market to be viable. If the game is not fair – real investors and real entrepreneurs don’t walk, they run…away. While much fraud is obvious and predictable, the most damaging is the type that nobody sees coming but can destroy the standard of trust for everyone, forever, like the Trojan horse.
Hypothetical Case Study:
A self-proclaimed innovation consultant runs a blog out of anywhere USA. They have a catchy domain name and their ranking is unusually high for a 5 month old blog with splashy but infrequent articles.
In the spirit of the X-prize, the blogger promotes an Innovation Contest offering $60,000 dollars worth of his company’s “Marketing Consultation” services as a prize to the next innovation that will change the world! … as judged by a “panel of experts”. The blogger encourages all entrants to send their social network to vote up their innovation as this will weigh heavily into the judging. Many people submit their work and diligently mine their Facebook and Linkedin networks for the vote.
The contest ends and the winning idea earned zero external votes but it is in an industry that is very popular in mainstream media and slated for government stimulus. However, it is clearly not up to par with many of the other entrants. Upon inquiry, the blog author does not specify the criteria for judging, he does not itemize the prize, he does not publish his “panel of experts” and he does not post any dissenting opinions or inquiries submitted to the moderated comments.
A few days later, a press release appears on Google news; “$60,000 dollar innovation contest prize awarded for breakthrough in targeted industry”. Leading tech media pick up the story and the “consultant” is hailed for defending the struggle of the unsung heroes of the innovation economy. It appears to the contestants that the consultant is promoting himself at their expense.
So, what’s wrong with that?
First; for all of the innovators who submit themselves to judgment and expend their social capital on votes, the integrity of the contest must be bullet-proof. The definition of the objective, the judges, and judging criteria must be specified absolutely. Otherwise, good ideas will not be shared.
Second; if potential sponsors of a legitimate X-prize-type contest are challenged in their sincerity to promote world-changing innovation, and instead are accused of self-promotion and media bias, a tremendously valuable resource of the innovation economy will be squandered.
Finally; if a person’s social networks are mobilized to vote in any type of contest – they must know that the time they invest will be respected and valued or they will no longer participate in other contests.
To this day, the clever ruse of the Trojans remains the fraud of choice for new market technologies. It has also marked the standard of trust that we hold forth in our relationships and invitation to our inner circle. Sharing of one’s friends is a deeply intimate act of faith and trust many times greater than sharing one’s ideas. The caregivers, those who hold forth the willingness to nurture that trust, must be qualified as stewards of the public endowment of social capital, creative capital, and intellectual capital.
Social Capitalism depends heavily on the function and performance of communities. A “paranoid bias” could be vastly damaging – possibly constraining the next great paradigm of economic development from achieving critical mass. Social Capitalism is not a game, it’s serious business.
We have established that Innovation and wealth creation are profoundly related and that one cannot be sustained without the other. A huge problem is becoming apparent because Money lives in a complex, global and highly integrated system where billions of dollars can circle the globe daily at the speed of light. Meanwhile, innovation does not live in an equally diverse, integrated and global system.
Instead, innovation lives in the patent system which is extremely slow, prohibitively expensive and full of secret language and legal strategy – certainly not accessible to most people who actually do the innovating. In the immediate financial crisis where we are printing money at an astonishing rate, we must increase the speed, quantity, and quality of innovation at a comparable rate in order to preserve the balance. We need an Innovation System to balance the Financial system.
Everyone knows that innovation happens in places like Silicon Valley, Corporations, a bunch of research labs, someplace in Japan, and of course the proverbial “Steve’s Garage”; but these places do not behave like a system, they are not integrated and they often compete rather than cooperate. Everyone knows what money is – but innovation is treated like some sort of mystery potion related to supreme knowledge among the gifted few.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Remember in the last chapter, the billions upon billions of tiny ideas are basically crowd sourced. These ideas are combined into larger advances and that process continues until, say, an IPod rolls off the assembly line. We readily call the IPod the innovation, but not the billions of tiny ideas.
Our accounting system is used to keep track of money, it is not designed to keep track of billions of tiny ideas. So it calls human knowledge “intangible” while the IPod is “tangible”. Somewhere along the line our culture reinforces this idea. The truth is that knowledge is not intangible – knowledge is simply invisible. This is a much easier problem to solve.
Intellectual Capital, social capital, and creative capital are locked up inside corporations sitting behind processes, job descriptions, and insulated from tangibility by multiple levels of management. The command and control system arose from the industrial revolution, and with the help of Wall Street, is responsible for great innovation advances leading humanity to a global gross domestic product of 65 trillion dollars. However, the volume of innovation under this system is no longer sufficient to sustain the debt that it has also created.
Today, the phenomenon of Social Networks is showing us that human knowledge is desperately trying to become visible, and predictably, innovation in this area is increases at a remarkable rate! The challenge now is to marry the phenomenon of social media to the financial system just like corporations are married to the financial system through Wall Street.
In market economics there are five components that are essential for a market to work properly; first, there is a currency of trade; like Dollars, or Euros, or Yen. Second, there is always an inventory so we can find pieces, count them, and build stuff. Third, there are financial and government institutions that are supposed to protect property rights to keep the game fair so that the people that own things don’t get ripped off. Fourth, we have entrepreneurs to do the fuzzy math, they interact with the system, they fill in the grey areas, and they manage risk. Finally, there is a business plan so that the entrepreneur can do what they do best – buy low, add value, sell high and pocket the difference. That’s how a market works. It’s quite simple.
Now listen carefully, these five elements are tightly connected and must be present in some way at every transaction. If any one of these elements is missing, disconnected, or corrupted, the system will fail. This is the underlying cause of the financial crisis, the system became disconnected.
We need to make “knowledge” look like money, walk like money, and talk like money and some real interesting things should happen.
The next several modules will go step by step through the five elements of market economics and we’ll uncover as best as we can those same five elements as they exist today in our knowledge economy. Then we’ll connect the dots, fill in the blanks – and out pops the innovation economy!!!
After that, we’ll discover the new business methods of the innovation economy. And finally, we will talk about the thousands of new “corporations” that will arise. Literally, every business that we know of can be made more efficient in an environment where knowledge is tangible and a great deal of new wealth creation will occur.
In order to restructure our financial system; we first need to restructure our innovation system. ALL of the top ten reasons for business failure are due to a lack of knowledge, not a lack of money.
Top 10 reasons why businesses fail:
1. Lack of an adequate, viable business plan
2. Insufficient sales to sustain business
3. Poor marketing plan: unappealing product, poor customer identification, incorrect pricing and lackluster promotion
4. Inadequate capital, misuse of capital and poor cost control
5. Poor management skills: lack of delegation, leadership and/or control
6. Lack of experience and knowledge
7. Lack of managerial focus/commitment
8. Poor customer service
9. Inadequate human resource management
10. Failure to properly use professional advice: i.e. accounting, legal, financial, etc.
Lack of a viable business plan is an act of negligence where research, scenarios, and assumptions have not been tested. Market ignorance is not an excuse nor is the failure to know one’s customer. Death by poor marketing plan is knowledge deficiency related to product appeal, customer identification, pricing structure, and lackluster promotion. Obviously, one needs to know how to manage a company in order to be focused, let alone correctly estimate capital needs. Lack of customer service knowledge is deadly in the age of social media. Inadequate HR is an oxymoron – if it’s inadequate, it’s not a resource – human or otherwise. Finally, failure to listen to knowledgeable people is ego driven irrationality.
The financial system is not the only problem; the innovation system is a crucial element. Information, knowledge and innovation, by any definition, are profoundly and inseparably connected. A failure in one kills the other two. So, just because an entrepreneur does not have the knowledge, does not mean it the ‘knowledge’ fails to exist – it simply means that entrepreneur failed to find it.
So where is the knowledge? Unfortunately, there is no public knowledge inventory – people do not know what each other knows. There is no website where that people can go search for all 90th percentile social media experts living in zip code 06776, let alone build a dedicated local management team. There is no way that anyone can assemble the knowledge needed to execute a business plan with a known probability of success given the information available. As such, there is no way to finance public innovation.
Insurance companies can tell you the probability that you will die exactly on your 80th birthday, but we cannot estimate the probability that a business will be successful. Nothing has more variables that human physiology, yet it is predictable and business success probability is not. Why can’t this be fixed?
If we could identify, integrate, and predict public information, knowledge and innovation, we could diversify risk exposures away. With risk exposures managed, we could insure start-ups risks. With start-up risk eliminated, we can sell innovation bonds at, say, 6% to fund the extraordinary rate of public innovation that we need to support our debt and pressing social liabilities. If the innovation bond returns a modest 20%, human productivity, by definition, has increased by 20%. A 20% growth in human productivity is a 20% growth in an economy. Again, financial system is not the only problem; the innovation system – or lack of an innovation system – is the problem. Perhaps oversimplified, but this is an astonishing omission from the national dialog on the financial crisis.
The emergence of Social Media technology presents an extraordinary opportunity to organize a knowledge inventory outside the construct of a corporation and marry it to the financial system, much like a corporation. Knowledge tangibility must be the most important “innovation” in the pipeline today if we expect to meet the crushing challenges that await us. Just because we cannot predict innovation does not mean it cannot be done – it just means that we do not know how… yet. This is not about inventing a new currency, it is about the public taking control of the old one. We, the people, don’t deserve to lose this game; join The Ingenesist Project and help build a sustainable Innovation Economy.
Social Network will become the corporate structure of the future. They will spit out start-ups at an astonishing rate.
The “resume system” will be banished forever possibly earning the title of the cruelest human invention since the lobotomy.
The University System will be challenged – the relevance of the college degree will be questioned in an economy that favors unique combination of knowledge assets rather than everyone having the same “degree”.
Everyone will have visibility of supply and demand for knowledge assets meaning that employers and employees will have equal information about cost, availability, and demand.
Creative knowledge workers will earn micro-royalties for their participation in thousands of brainstorming sessions and product development discussions. Earnings will be shared openly and the percentile Search Engine.
The new Patent will be the “Secret Sauces” – the algorithm that entrepreneurs will develop to select their knowledge assets when producing specific innovation.
Teachers will forego salary in favor of an equity position in their students. The best teachers will make the most money. Universities will forego tuition in favor of an equity position in students; the best students attract the best mentors and universities. Apprenticeship will become commonplace.
The knowledge inventory and Percentile Search Engine system rewards people for doing what they are most passionate about. The dominant strategy for all players in an Innovation Economy (that which produces the most revenue) is for participants to pursue what they are naturally good at and passionate for – as long as there is a market for it.
Innovation bonds will return 80% interest or more with near-zero risk. Institutional investors, insurance reserves, and foreign investors will flood the market with venture capital.
Knowledge workers will outsource management.
The Fed will peg the dollar to productivity, not gold or silver – interest on deposits will track productivity increases due to innovation.
Social priorities will impact what gets invented or what stays on the shelf; Global Warming, Alternative Energy, Sustainable environments will have net positive business cases.
The flaw in market economics will be reversed. Technological change will precede economic growth eliminating the economics of debt (ref video). The financial system will be restored to a sustainable condition.
We know that innovation is the engine of all wealth creation and it will live in an integrated system. Knowledge will be reformatted to emulate a financial instrument.
A good article from business week
A great Blog: Jay Deragon and the relationship economy
With a computer readable knowledge inventory, local communities of practice, a percentile search engine algorithm, and the virtuous circle of finance, then future innovation cash flows can be predicted much more accurately and with far lower risk than with, say, the venture capitalists acting alone.
Were risk is predictable, cash flows are predictable and the portfolio of innovations can be diversified so if one business fails there is an equal chance that another will succeed and the risks cancel each other out. The cash flow of all the innovation enterprises can be combined into a single large steady cash flow. Just like companies do to raise money for expansion, the innovation bank can issue innovation bonds on the open market. The revenue from selling Innovation Bonds can return to the community to finance innovation and fund wealth creation at very low interest rates compared with venture capital today.
With a lower cost of venture capital and a system that supports open source innovation an astonishing amount of innovation will be unleashed in society.
We have set up a new game for entrepreneurs to play called Innovation Economics. We have defined a currency and an inventory where knowledge is visible outside the construct of the corporation – and resident in social networks. We have also described a way for entrepreneurs to visualize the knowledge asset and the supply and the demand for knowledge assets. We have given them a tool for matching assets for profit. We have described how social networks will keep the game fair. We have outlined the structure of new business plans; the brain storming session, product development cycle, the neural network, and the multiplier effect. Future businesses will be built upon combination of these four structures and whatever else entrepreneurs can dream up.
We have described all of the pieces needed to form a new economy. Now we need to connect with the financial markets so that knowledge is readily convertible to other currencies.
For review;
With the financial bank, the entrepreneur assumes that they have the knowledge to execute a business plan and then they look for the money. The risk is that the entrepreneur does not in fact have enough knowledge.
With the Innovation Bank, we assume that we have the money, and we go to the bank to search for the knowledge. The risk is not having enough money to purchase sufficient expertise.
With both banks acting together – the risks cancel each other out and the innovation economy tends toward a ‘risk free’ cycle; the more knowledge you can assemble, the more money you can borrow. The more money you can assemble, the more knowledge you can assemble.
Now we have a virtuous circle. The more knowledge you have, the more money you can borrow; and the more money you have, the more knowledge you can borrow.
There is no shortage of money circling the globe – only a shortage of risk free places to put the money. The innovation economy is an environment of very high return for a very low risk and will attract a great deal of money to fund innovation enterprise.
Earlier we demonstrated that money represents human productivity. It follows that the places that have the greatest potential for increasing human productivity can create the greatest amount of wealth. Therefore, poor areas and marginalized economies with under utilized knowledge inventories or the injection of specific knowledge inventories, become the highest ROI centers in a risk-free system; a condition the explicitly favors the wealth equalization rather than wealth disparity.
If we combine the parallel transaction with the series transaction we have what now looks like a neural network. In practice, we know that strong networks of people freely exchanging ideas make organizations better, smarter, and more efficient. Networks are where knowledge and wisdom is literally stored. A network is fault tolerant, if one person leaves, the network survives. For a relatively small input into a network, we can produce a large output of new knowledge – we have a learning organization.
However, in society, these interactions are largely accidental; people meet at Church, Starbucks, and Social Events or by word of Mouth. Other times, these interactions are concentrated inside a single community of very similar people such as a technical conference, group meeting, or lunch buddies and are often not well diversified.
Suppose the interactions among people were not random, instead, they could be designed by the entrepreneur to produce a unique outcome. The Innovation Bank will combine people of complementary knowledge assets in a calculated manner in order to arrive at specific business approaches and applications.
A special case of the above business method and resulting social network is called the Multiplier Effect. A financial bank enjoys a multiplier effect with the ability to lend the 10 times more money than they hold in reserve. Money changing hands has a multiplier effect on an economy. Again, financial analogies hold.
Suppose that a company owns composite material technology for use on aircraft. Since they specialize in airplanes, they have no intention of pursuing other applications such as recreational equipment, energy production, or health care products.
Suppose that the company could deposit this asset in a bank and collect interest. The Search Engine can scan the business landscape to find companies with a knowledge deficit in the area of your technology and make loans of your technology. As the originator, you have the option to see what those other companies invent and you hold the right to use their new ideas in your aircraft application.
With an innovation Bank, you can reduce your Research and Development costs and create additional revenue in a tangential innovation market. With reduced cost and risk of innovation, you are likely to specialize more and more in innovation as your enterprise. In the event of a cyclic downturn in the business of an originator, instead of “laying off” knowledge assets, people can work in tangential industries where they will continue developing – literally putting “Knowledge in the Bank” – to be called back when market conditions improve. A mobile knowledge asset increases in value becoming smarter and more productive over time.
So now, what are the entrepreneurs going to do with this percentile search engine?
Entrepreneurs wander the earth looking for valuable things that are being used at a low level of productivity and they move those assets to a higher level of productivity and then pocket the difference, called profit.
Think pet rock, condo conversions, sand, corn, etc.,…it goes on forever.
The entrepreneur needs to have a clear view of what the asset is, the lower level of productivity, and the higher level of productivity of the asset. These three elements are the focus of all business plans. Then they set things in motion and give life to the market system.
When we look at financial banks we see the classic entrepreneurial activity. In the simplest form, banks do little more than find people who have a surplus of money and they match them with people who have a deficit of money. Bankers have a clear view of the asset, the lower level of productivity and the higher level of productivity for the asset.
They pay a lower interest to the depositor than they do to the borrower and pocket the difference. In addition, they enjoy a multiplier effect that allows them to lend the same money many times effectively creating money from a promise to pay, or debt.
It is in the best interest of the bank to find rich people who will not need their money for a while, and poor people that have the best likelihood of paying the money back in time. This is to minimize the risk that the depositor will pull out their deposits and the risk that the borrower will not pay back the loan. The problem is that some assumptions need to be made, some of which may no longer be valid:
The bank assumes that the borrower has the knowledge required to execute the business plan that they are financing. Unfortunately, the credit score does not predict knowledge on future ventures. For this reason, new ventures are not easy to finance.
The financial bank makes the assumption that the entrepreneur has the knowledge to execute a business plan that they seek money to fund.
On the other hand, the Innovation Bank makes the assumption that the entrepreneur has the money available to execute the business and is searching for the knowledge to do so. This service will be required in the innovation economy since no single person can live long enough to possess as much knowledge as is required to manage the complexity of problems that face the World. We will need to mind meld.
The Innovation Bank simply matches most worthy knowledge surplus with most worthy knowledge deficit and a market is born.
The challenge for the innovation Bank is to match the most correct knowledge surplus to the most correct knowledge deficit. This is accomplished with the computer enabled knowledge inventory. A search can be conducted of the supply and demand for knowledge assets. The Percentile Search Engine will calculate the probability that the specific business objective will be successful.
The business plan for the entrepreneur is very simple but the implications are vast.
The Percentile Search Engine is a way of using a computer to make predictions about all types of combinations of knowledge Assets.
Conceptually, the percentile search engine is where all of the equations that we use to analyze financial assets are now applied to knowledge assets. The main characteristic is that the Percentile Search Engine returns probabilities – that is, what’s the probability of success for any number of scenarios.
For example; an entrepreneur may want to know if her team has enough knowledge to execute a business plan. Maybe the team has too much knowledge and they should try something more valuable. Maybe the team does not have enough knowledge and they should find someone else, take training, or try something simpler. The Percentile Search Engine can look into the community and identify the supply and demand of a knowledge asset. If it is unavailable or too expensive, the Percentile Search Engine will even tell them what training they need to increase their probability of success.
The entrepreneur may also want to determine what competitors have a dangerously high probability of competing with her new business. The Search Engine will allow competitors to scan each other’s knowledge inventory to determine how long it would take for their secret sauce copied. They can take then choose to take evasive action, compete, or cooperate. If a key person retires, the entrepreneur would simulate the knowledge that is lost and reassign people strategically. All of these scenarios can be examines prior to spending money. They can be made during the project cycle, or after the project is completed. Lessons learned can be used to adjust the algorithm perfecting it over time.
While companies such as Disney and Boeing both use Engineers, each would have proprietary combinations of knowledge that represents their “secret sauce” of success. These recipes can be adjusted and improved to reflect the wisdom of an organization.
Over time, these algorithms will far more valuable then the Patents and Trade Secrets created by them – this will allow technologies to be open sourced much more profitably and shared across more industries.
Literally thousands of new business plans will emerge from this important new paradigm. Knowledge will become tangible outside of the organizational construct of the corporation. Knowledge combinations will become the new corporate structure. The rate of change of knowledge with respect to time is the key metric and fundamental building block of the innovation economy.
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