Tag: predictable

Collateralized Innovation Obligations

On June 9, 2009

Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) are a type of structured asset-backed security (ABS) whose value and payments are derived from a portfolio of fixed-income underlying assets. In the case of the current financial crisis, the underlying assets were home mortgages. It is not necessary for the CDO buyer or seller to know who lives in the home and what they produce; the asset is a contract backed by future productivity.

CDOs vary in structure and underlying assets, but the basic principle is the same. To create a CDO, a corporate entity is constructed to hold contracts as collateral and to sell packages of predictable future cash flows to investors. The more money handed out in home loans, the more money could be collected in CDOs

You are a liability.

While corporate leaders proclaim that people are the greatest asset, corporate accounting practices specify otherwise. Employees are an expense and their salaries, benefits, and pensions are liabilities to be reduced any time the opportunity arises. So what’s the problem? Liabilities can’t innovate.

Suppose for a moment that people were in fact an asset on the accounting sheet and their salaries, benefits, and pensions were “investments”.

Collateralized Innovation Obligation (CIO):

The CIO would obviously be a type of structured asset-backed security (ABS) whose value and payments are derived from a portfolio of fixed-income underlying assets, specifically, the output of productive and motivated people.

Like the CDO, a CIO would vary in structure and underlying assets, but the basic principle is the same. To create a CIO, a corporate entity is constructed to hold assets as collateral and to sell predicted future cash flows to investors. It is not necessary for the CIO buyer or seller to know who is innovating or what they are producing; the asset is a contract backed by future changes in productivity. The more money handed out in innovation loans, the more money could be collected in CIOs. For all practical purposes, we could call it an Innovation Bond.

Enter Social Media:

Social media is teaching us an important lesson about innovation. Every time you get a diverse group of people together to share ideas, new ideas form. Every idea is useful as long as it is shared; thousands of bad ideas must expire before the good one appears. Conversational currency is the vetting mechanism of all ideas. While not every good idea becomes a great invention, every great invention is built from good ideas. Machines cannot produce ideas and no single company, country or person holds a monopoly on ideas. Innovation and the creation of all wealth arise from the social, creative, and intellectual interaction of people.

Conversational Currency: The underlying asset

The underlying asset that supports both the Collateralized Debt Obligation and the Collateralized Innovation Obligation is a person and their ideas; one is an asset and the other is a liability. Both types of people go to work every day to interact with other people. They both share ideas and create better ways of doing things. People increase human productivity through fault tolerant networks and support systems. They transform information into knowledge and innovation – and both pay their mortgage.

The US Financial System – Tail Wagging Dog

By Admin

On February 10, 2009

In General Information

The financial system is not the problem. The Innovation System is the problem – or did you notice that we do not have an “innovation system”? Finance and Innovation in the US has engaged in the dangerous dance of tail wagging dog. Innovation is as Wall Street does; not the other way around. This is wrong, this is very wrong.

Doers, not shakers

[Our economic strength is derived from the doers, the makers of things, the innovators who create and expand enterprises, the workers who provide life to companies and, with their earnings, support families and invest in their future… This is what drives economic growth.] – Barack Obama

These are sobering words. It make one wonder how everyone else makes a living; the brokers, the agents, the middlemen, the gatekeepers, the spinners, the flippers, the money managers, and everyone else in the game with their hands “in the flow of money” dragging the system into a tailspin. Many of these people publicly criticize the working class, who have finally run out of steam, for gumming up their game.

It is also amazing that the engineers, educators, technologists, medical professionals, and public servants could produce so much for so long; enough to feed everyone else – except, as of recently, themselves.

[The financial system is central to this process, transforming the earnings and savings of American workers into the loans that finance a first home, a new car or a college education, the credit necessary to build a company around a new idea.] – Tim Geithner

Meet the Master:

The financial system is supposed to be the servant, not the master. Innovation takes time, effort and resources before the payback can be realized. For this reason only, the financial system bridges that time gap to allow for increased future productivity to generate new wealth for use by all. That is the only reason why the financial system should exists. But somehow we have gotten it backwards.

We got it backwards:

Technological change must precede economic growth. We are going about the process of globalization as if economic growth can precede technological change. The invention of the wheel, wedge and the pulley came before the invention of the Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) – there is no excuse for this oversight. This is clearly unsustainable and the process must be reversed.

An easy fix, almost:

The Ingenesist project specifies 3 web applications that will allow social capital, creative capital, and intellectual capital to become tangible outside of the bloated and failing financial system. These applications will make innovation success predictable. If success is predictable, then cash flows are predictable. Using the same calculus as Wall Street, the cash flows can be combined, diversified, and split up into innovation bonds with superior returns that can be issued to fund new and sustainable innovation enterprise. Problem solved.

3 steps away from a quantum leap:

This can be done today playing by the rules and using existing technology – 3 simple applications. That is how close we are to achieving the most important evolutionary step in human history. The Government needs to empower the people to release themselves from the shackles of debt created by those who create little else. For this reason, Obama is on the only correct path – buying time so that this important social media technology can mature.

Social Media; The Opportunity of a Century

By Admin

On December 1, 2008

In General Information

The Perfect Storm:

We are at an historic time in human history; one that may never repeat itself again. The current financial crisis may provide just enough disruption for a completely new economic paradigm to emerge; the Innovation Economy. We cannot squander this moment arguing over common logon for our Twitter and Facebook profiles; a far greater integration is required from Social Media.

Advertising is not the correct revenue model.

It is astonishing that Social Media, in general, has not figured out how to make money. Social Media IS money. All wealth on Earth was created from the social capital, creative capital, and intellectual capital of people – wealth creation is already crowd sourced. Now, there is an opportunity for Social Media to harness this engine of economic growth and wealth creation – if they could only see it.

The problem is simple: Globalization is proceeding as if economic growth can occur before technological change. Some time in the past, we got these two things up mixed. It does not take money to make money; it takes innovation to make money. Technological change MUST ALWAYS happen before real economic growth can occur. Anything else is a transfer of wealth, not the creation of wealth. All that is unsustainable today – the economy, the environment, natural resources, energy – is due to this itsy bitsy anomaly of current market economics. Today, we can easily correct this little flaw with almost a flip of a switch – but the window of opportunity will be short – and we need to be clever.

The idea that human knowledge is tangible and behaves individually and collectively like a financial instrument is still considered impossible. The ability to place a market value on the social capital, creative capital, and intellectual capital of a team, community, or geographic population of people – let alone a social network – has never been accomplished. This idea remains the Holy Grail of finance and one that Social Media is uniquely positioned to capture. If the finance industry can invent “tangible derivatives” out of thin air paper, then we ought to be able to do the same with knowledge assets that live and breathe tangibly all around us.

If it looks like money, it will behave like money, guaranteed:

First, we need to build a knowledge inventory system that includes everyone; and which can be anonymously codified and amalgamated with logic in machine readable format (the Universal Decimal Classification System is a good candidate). Second, we need to sample our inventory in a community using the proverbial “Bell Curve”. Third, we need to develop a search engine that returns the probability that a strategic combination of knowledge assets can execute a given objective. Fourth, we need an innovation Bank that will “pull” knowledge surplus and “pull” knowledge deficits together from diverse communities. (Please see the IEc101 at https://ingenesist.com)

This should not sound too weird; it is the same game that Wall Street plays. The switch is flipped when we engage our innovation system with the financial system.

Go where the money is:

Social Media is perfectly positioned to develop these features in their products and in our communities. We first must understand that innovation is predictable. We may not be able to say exactly where the innovation will lead, but we can be sure that if we place a group of strategically diversified persons in a room, innovation will happen. If the fact of innovation is predictable, risks related to the invented can be pooled, morphed, or diversified. If risk can be diversified, it can be hedged to zero. If innovation has zero risk, Wall Street will salivate to issue “innovation bonds” to finance diverse communities of practice. If innovation capital is inexpensive and accessible, a great amount of innovation will occur. The anomaly of capital markets can be reversed, and the result will be sustainable economic growth.

Naturally, the compensation structure will be in the form of dividends, both financial and in social welfare. New corporations will emerge and the old corporations will become more efficient. What is invented will tend to reflect social priorities rather than today’s short term Wall Street priorities. America must innovate at an intense and sustained rate in order to compensate for the imbalance of debt economics that has been created in its absence. Social Media can be, and must be, the infrastructure upon which an Innovation Economy is built. Again, this opportunity is staring us straight in the eye. This is the conversation that must be having today if we will meet the challenges of tomorrow.

The Next Economic Paradigm

Tag: predictable

The US Financial System – Tail Wagging Dog

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